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The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific

Elsevier BV

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific's content profile, based on 15 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.01% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Neonatal mortality risk of large-for-gestational age and macrosomic live births in low- and middle-income subnational birth cohorts: An individual participant meta-analysis (2000-2017)

Kirakoya Samadoulougou, F.; Barche, B.; Ukwishaka, J.; Subedi, S.; Erchick, D. J.; Suarez Idueta, L.; Hamer, D. H.; Semrau, K. E. A.; Hamomba, F. M.; Banda, B.; Manasyan, A.; Pry, J. M.; Maleta, K.; Ashorn, U.; Schmiegelow, C.; Hjort, L.; Minja, D. T. R.; Lusingu, J. P. A.; Freitas da Silveira, M.; Buffarini, R.; Baqui, A. H.; Khanam, R.; Ahmed, S.; Zhu, Z.; Zeng, L.; Cheng, Y.; Lachat, C.; Roberfroid, D.; Huybregts, L.; Toe, L. C.; Tielsch, J. M.; Khatry, S. K.; Mullany, L. C.; Ohuma, E. O.; Blencowe, H.; Katz, J.; Lee, A. C. C.; Black, R. E.; Hazel, E. A.

2026-06-06 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.03.26354851 medRxiv
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Background Large-for-gestational-age (LGA) and macrosomic newborns are at increased risk of adverse perinatal outcomes, including death, yet the burden of neonatal mortality associated with these conditions in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where ongoing nutritional and epidemiological transitions suggest their prevalence will rise, remains poorly quantified. In this study, we quantify the neonatal mortality risk associated with LGA and macrosomia from 16 subnational birth cohorts in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017. Methods and findings This is an individual-participant meta-analysis to estimate neonatal mortality rates (NMRs) and relative risks among LGA infants (>90th and >97th percentile birth weight-for-gestational-age using INTERGROWTH-21st) versus appropriate-for-gestational-age (AGA, 10th-90th percentile) infants. Macrosomic ([≥]4000 g and [≥]4500 g) neonates were compared with those weighing 2500 g-3999g. Missing birth weights were imputed using recalibration and multiple imputation methods. We used random effects meta-analysis to pool relative risks. Median prevalences of LGA >90th and >97th percentile were 5.3% (interquartile range 3.6-8.2) and 2.6% (IQR 1.3-4.5), respectively; macrosomia ([≥]4000 g and [≥]4500 g) prevalences were 1.0% (IQR 0.3-3.1) and 0.06% (IQR 0.0, 0.30), respectively. Mortality was highest among preterm plus LGA infants (61.3 per 1000). LGA infants in the >90th percentile had over twofold increased mortality compared with appropriate-for-gestational-age infants (RR: 2.46; 95% CI: 1.86-3.25), while >97th percentile infants had a higher risk (RR: 3.77; 95% CI: 2.50-5.69). Term LGA >97th percentile infants also showed elevated mortality (RR: 3.14; 95% CI: 1.58-6.22). For LGA >97th percentile, the risk was higher in the early neonatal period (RR: 2.71; 95% CI: 1.92-3.82) than late (RR: 1.69; 95% CI: 1.22-2.34). There was no overall association between macrosomia ([≥]4000 g) and neonatal mortality. Population attributable fractions were 7.2% for LGA >90th percentile and 0.4% for macrosomia ([≥]4000 g). Conclusions Neonatal mortality risks were elevated among LGA infants in low- and middle-income countries, particularly at extreme values (>97th percentile) and during the early neonatal period. Macrosomia showed weaker, less robust associations. Although LGA prevalence is currently low ([~]5%) and contributes less to neonatal mortality than small newborns, ongoing nutritional and epidemiological transitions suggest increasing prevalence. This highlights the need for strengthened surveillance, monitoring, and improved delivery planning to ensure that no population is left behind.

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Wealth-Related Inequalities in Cesarean Section Utilization Among Facility-Based Births in Bangladesh: Evidence from Public and Private Healthcare Facilities

Mahmud, S.

2026-06-11 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.09.26355308 medRxiv
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Background Bangladesh has experienced a rapid increase in cesarean section (CS) utilization over the past two decades. While previous studies have documented socioeconomic disparities in CS use, evidence on how wealth-related inequalities differ between public and private healthcare facilities remains limited. This study assessed the magnitude and drivers of socioeconomic inequality in CS utilization among facility-based births in Bangladesh. Methods We analyzed data from 3,008 facility-based births reported in the 2022 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS). Survey-weighted multivariable logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with CS utilization. Wealth-related inequality was assessed using concentration curves and the Erreygers-corrected concentration index (ECCI). Regression-based decomposition of the standard concentration index was performed to quantify the contribution of socioeconomic, demographic, and healthcare-related factors to observed inequalities overall and separately for public and private facilities. Results Overall, 71.2% of facility-based births were delivered by CS, with substantially higher prevalence in private facilities (84.2%) than in public facilities (35.9%). Women delivering in private facilities had markedly higher odds of CS than those delivering in public facilities (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 9.07; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 7.17-11.47). Significant pro-rich inequality was observed overall (ECCI: 0.154; 95% CI: 0.117-0.191), with inequality substantially greater in public facilities (ECCI: 0.189; 95% CI: 0.114-0.264) than in private facilities (ECCI: 0.049; 95% CI: 0.014-0.084). Decomposition analysis showed that household wealth was the dominant contributor to inequality, particularly the richest wealth quintile, accounting for 81.5% of overall inequality, 63.8% in public facilities, and 109.7% in private facilities. Conclusions Wealth-related inequalities in CS utilization remain substantial in Bangladesh despite widespread use of the procedure. Although pro-rich inequality exists across both sectors, inequality is considerably greater in public facilities and is driven by different mechanisms across facility types. Policies should simultaneously improve equitable access to medically necessary CS and reduce unnecessary procedures, particularly within the private sector.

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Impact of Out-Migration and Remittances on Food Consumption Outcomes among Rural Households in Tigray, Ethiopia

Weldu, T. T.

2026-06-11 nutrition 10.64898/2026.06.09.26355307 medRxiv
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This study examines the effects of rural out-migration and remittance inflows on food consumption outcomes among rural households in the Tigray region of Ethiopia. Utilizing household survey data collected from 521 rural households across three distinct Weredas (districts) (Tahtay Maichew, Kola Tembien, and Kilte-awlaelo). A Binary Probit model was employed to identify factors influencing migration decisions, while an Endogenous Switching Regression (ESR) model was used to estimate the impact of migration on food consumption outcomes while controlling for selection bias and unobserved heterogeneity. Food security was measured using the Food Consumption Score (FCS) and dietary diversity indicators. The empirical results reveal that severe food insecurity is widespread, with over 60% of all surveyed households falling into the "Poor" food consumption category. Descriptive baseline comparisons show that migration and remittance transfers marginally shift the raw average FCS upward from 23.86 to 25.48. However, this impact is profoundly nuanced: remittances serve as an immediate consumption-smoothing safety net but run parallel to a "labor-lost" constraint that reduces own-production capacities, forcing households to rely increasingly on market purchases for staple foods. The findings reveal that migration creates short-term labor shortages in agricultural production; however, remittance inflows substantially improve household food consumption frequencies, particularly for pulses, vegetables, and other nutrient-rich foods. After accounting for self-selection bias and unobserved traits, the rigorous ESR estimates indicate that migration increases the Food Consumption Score of participating households by an average Treatment Effect on the Treated (ATT) of 10.75 points, shifting them into more secure dietary tiers. Moreover, remittances help households mitigate the adverse effects of drought and other shocks by relaxing liquidity constraints and supporting both food purchases and agricultural investments. The study recommends establishing target food security safety nets for non-remittance households, promoting scale-appropriate labor-saving agricultural technologies, expanding traditional communal labor-sharing innovations, and boosting irrigation and agricultural input support programs to enhance rural food security and livelihood resilience.

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Using colorectal cancer screening evidence to stratify for personal risk among those with a family history of colorectal cancer: a 42-year cohort study

King, D. W.; King, P. E.; Blanchard, M. W.; Ning, N. W.; King, S. K.; Grimm, M. C.; Ha, T.; Eagar, K.

2026-06-08 health systems and quality improvement 10.64898/2026.06.04.26354891 medRxiv
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Objective To determine if it is possible to assess individual patient risk of the development of colorectal cancer (CRC) in people in high-risk groups due to their family history. Design/Method Retrospective observational study of prospectively collected data from consecutive patients referred for a colonoscopy. 2,478 consecutive patients were referred to a single colorectal surgical practice in Sydney, Australia between 1977 and 2018 for a colonoscopy because of a family history of CRC. Of these, 1,963 have been followed for more than 10 years and are the subject of this paper. Histopathological findings categorised as normal (N), non-advanced adenoma (NAA) or advanced neoplasia (AN) with AN proven to be the precursor to CRC. Intervention Colonoscopic screening on the basis of contemporary practice to 2006 and subsequently according to Australian National Health and Medical Research Council guidelines. Results Participants with normal or low-risk findings in the first decade remain at lower risk of CRC for 30 years from the commencement of screening. Conclusion It is possible to stratify individual patients in a high relative risk cohort into those with high or low personal risk of CRC based on colonoscopic findings in the first 10 years of surveillance. Those with no AN in the first ten years have a lower 30-year risk of developing AN than the general community. This offers the possibility of structuring surveillance programs around individual risk rather than group risk, lessening the need for multiple surveillance colonoscopies in the majority of such patients and improving the cost effectiveness of CRC screening at the population level.

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A continental-scale scenario modelling framework for evaluating infant RSV immunisation strategies across Europe

Viola, E.; Mazzoli, M.; Paolotti, D.; Rizzo, A.; Zino, L.; Gozzi, N.

2026-06-11 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.10.26355338 medRxiv
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Background. The recent approval of long-acting monoclonal antibodies (la-mAbs) and a maternal vaccine (MV) in the EU enables universal RSV prevention in infants. Modelling studies are widely used to quantify the population-level impact of alternative immunisation strategies. However, existing assessments of new RSV immunisation products focus on national or sub-national settings. Methods. We developed an age-stratified, stochastic compartmental model of RSV transmission for 28 EU/EEA countries. It combines literature-based parameters on RSV natural history and product efficacy with country-specific demographic and contact patterns. After model calibration against age- and country-specific RSV hospitalisation rates, we designed scenarios for both la-mAbs and MV at four coverage levels, with and without catch-up immunisation for infants under six months at season onset. We then evaluated each scenario against a no-immunisation baseline. Results. At 95% coverage, the cross-country median reduction in RSV hospitalisations over one season in infants under 12 months is 29.9% for la-mAbs (country median range: 27.7-33.9%) and 22.4% for MV (20.0-25.6%), scaling linearly with coverage. Out of all averted hospitalisations, 78.3% (90% CI: [67.3, 92.7]%) are concentrated in infants aged 0-2 months for la-mAbs and 72.7% (90\% CI: [61.4, 88.6]%) for MV. A catch-up campaign nearly doubles the overall reduction in RSV hospitalisations. Conclusions. Despite country-specific heterogeneities, impact of la-mAbs and MV is comparable across settings and herd-immunity effects are largely negligible. This supports harmonised European guidelines on coverage targets. Seasonal catch-up campaigns emerge as an effective lever to maximise the impact of immunisation programmes.

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Magnitude of Undernutrition and Associated Factors among Pregnant Women Attending Public Health Facilities in Goba District, Bale Zone, Oromia, Ethiopia: A cross-sectional Study,

Ibrahim, S. M.; Lakew, M. S.; Amhare, A. F.; Hussein, D.; Kedir, H.; Abdulbesit, H.

2026-06-08 nutrition 10.64898/2026.06.05.26354999 medRxiv
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Abstract Objective: This study aimed to assess the magnitude of undernutrition and associated factors among pregnant women attending public health facilities in the Goba district, Bale zone, Oromia Region, Ethiopia, 2022. Design: Institution-based, cross-sectional study design was used. Setting: The study was conducted in selected public health facilities from May to June 2022. Participants: The study population consisted of pregnant women who lived for at least 6 months in the study area and who attended antenatal care follow-up at selected public health facilities during the study period. Pregnant women who lived for less than six months in the study area and those who were critically ill were excluded from the study. Results: 487 respondents participated in this study with a 100% response rate. More than half (50.7%) of pregnant mothers were undernourished. The significant factors associated with maternal undernutrition during pregnancy in this study were mothers with no formal education (AOR = 5.050; 95% CI: 1.470- 17.346), a history of illness during pregnancy (AOR = 2.089; 95% CI: 1.246-3.504), and eating frequency of meals less than or equal to three times per day (AOR = 3.292; 95% CI: 1.040- 10.42). Poor nutritional knowledge (AOR = 5.588; 95% CI: 2.921-10.689), poor household (HH) wealth status (AOR = 4.774; 95% CI: 2.216- 10.285), and mothers who had >= 4 pregnancies were included (AOR = 0.852; 95% CI: 342-0.989). Conclusion: The magnitude of Undernutrition among pregnant women was 50.7%. Significant associations with Undernutrition were found in mothers with no formal education, poor dietary knowledge, a meal frequency of three or fewer times per day, a history of illness during pregnancy, lower and medium household wealth status, and those who had experienced four or more pregnancies while attending antenatal care (ANC) services at public health facilities.

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Early assessment of potential airline-mediated importation risk during the 2026 DRC-Uganda Bundibugyo virus disease outbreak

Kinoshita, R.; Suzuki, M.; Yoneoka, D.

2026-06-09 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.01.26354569 medRxiv
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During the 2026 Bundibugyo virus disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, we projected potential airline-mediated importation risk using contemporary airline network and an externally calibrated Ebola importation hazard. Effective-distance analyses identified major international hub countries, including Belgium, France, South Africa, Kenya, and the United Arab Emirates, as higher-probability gateways within 30 days. These early projections provide a reproducible framework for real-time international situational awareness, while emphasizing that importation risk does not imply local transmission risk.

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Global Health Injustice From Climate Change Driven By Consumption

Rupcic, L.; Yoo, D.; Levasseur, A.; Alexandre, C.; Laurent, A.; Jolliet, O.

2026-06-12 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.10.26355381 medRxiv
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Climate change imposes unequal health burdens from heat and cold, disproportionately harming vulnerable nations least responsible for emissions. A framework to quantitatively attribute this damage to different countries' consumption patterns has been missing. We developed a global framework linking consumption-based greenhouse gas emissions to country-specific health burdens, measured in Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). Our results quantify the profound scale of this externalized harm. For example, average North American consumption imposes a global health burden of 34 days of healthy life per person per year, without net damage suffered. In contrast, Sub-Saharan Africa endures 25 days per person per year despite minimal emissions. The resulting Health Injustice Index provides a powerful instrument for climate accountability, reframing responsibility in terms of tangible human health impacts.

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Age-specific burden of medically attended respiratory virus disease in high-income countries: a scoping review and meta-analysis

Gupta, M.; Zoega, H.; Stopard, I. J.; Liu, B.; Macartney, K.; Wood, J. G.; Hogan, A. B.

2026-06-10 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.09.26354660 medRxiv
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Introduction: Respiratory infections are a leading cause of morbidity. Newly available vaccines to prevent respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) disease and encouraging clinical progress on vaccines for human metapneumovirus (hMPV) and parainfluenza (PIV) could reduce the disease burden beyond existing influenza and SARS-CoV-2 immunisation programs. However, evidence on the contribution of these viruses to respiratory disease burden across the lifespan remains limited. Methods: We reviewed studies from 01/2002-11/2025 reporting age-stratified, medically attended cases of influenza, and at least one of RSV, hMPV, or PIV, in high-income countries, excluding periods substantially overlapping with the COVID-19 pandemic. Using only studies that tested for all four viruses, we estimated the age-specific proportion of cases that were non-influenza (total across RSV, hMPV and PIV) compared to influenza using a mixed-effects logistic regression model. Results: Following exclusions and screening, 61 studies were included in the primary analysis comprising >500,000 detections of the four viruses. We found that a substantial proportion of medically attended respiratory illness in infants and young children was due to PIV, hMPV and RSV, rather than influenza, with a non-influenza virus proportion of 90.2% (95% CI 85.9-93.2%) in young infants aged 0-6 months. The converse was true for school-aged children, with a non-influenza virus proportion of 34.8% (95% CI 26.5-44.2%) in children aged 5-18 years. In adults aged 65+ years, non-influenza causes of medically attended disease were common at 60.2% (95% CI 50.0-69.5%). Restricting to studies reporting hospitalised cases (n=19) produced broadly similar age-specific trends in relative virus burden contributions. Discussion: We highlight the significant burden of medically attended illness due to PIV, hMPV and RSV across ages, particularly in infant and preschool-aged children and older adults, supporting the need for effective vaccines targeting this burden.

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Serological thresholds of risk reduction for infant group B streptococcus disease

Cantrell, L.; Karampatsas, K.; Andrews, N.; Beach, S.; Bentley, E.; Berardi, A.; Bijlsma, M. W.; Cagil Kocana, C.; Daniel, O.; French, N.; Hall, T.; Izu, A.; Khalil, A.; Kwatra, G.; Kyohere, M.; Madhi, S. A.; Mboizi, R.; Miselli, F.; Nielsen, M.; Thorn, N.; van de Beek, D.; Walker, K.; Heath, P. T.; Le Doare, K.; Voysey, M.; PREPARE WP3 Study Group,

2026-06-06 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.05.29.26353453 medRxiv
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Vaccines to prevent infant group B streptococcus (GBS) disease are advancing, with licensure likely based on safety and immunologic endpoints rather than clinical efficacy data. This approach requires robust, generalisable serological thresholds of risk reduction (SToRRs). We combined data from six case-control studies in Europe and Africa to define SToRRs for early-onset (EOD) and late-onset (LOD) GBS disease. Across diverse epidemiological and healthcare settings, anti-capsular polysaccharide IgG concentrations were consistently higher in infants who remained disease free than in those who developed disease. Higher antibody concentrations were required to reduce the risk of EOD than LOD, and higher concentrations were required for serotype Ia than for serotype III. This study provides a quantitative framework to support correlates-based evaluation and potential licensure of maternal GBS vaccines.

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Maternal deaths associated factors in the Conflict-Affected North West Region of Cameroon. Lessons from a cross-sectional survey

ACHUONDOU, E. E.; Ayaba, U. W.; Kuma, A. C.; Talla, K. E.

2026-06-11 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.10.26355370 medRxiv
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Background Maternal mortality is a significant global public health crisis, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and conflict-affected regions. Cameroon's maternal mortality ratio is high at 406 deaths per 100,000 live births, while the ongoing Anglophone conflict has further exacerbated maternal healthcare delivery in the North West Region (NWR){middle dot} Despite the evidence-based interventions like partographs, obstetric kits, birth preparedness plans, and active management of the third stage of labour, implementation gaps persist across health facilities. Objective The study aimed to assess factors related to preventable maternal deaths in the NWR of Cameroon by exploring maternal health service usage, implementation of obstetric measures, demand-side challenges, accessibility barriers, and health system weaknesses. Methodology The study employed a quantitative descriptive cross-sectional survey design{middle dot} Data was collected with structured questionnaires from postpartum women and healthcare workers in selected health facilities and catchment communities in the NWR{middle dot} Also, a multistage sampling technique was adopted, and Cochran's formula generated a sample size of 109 respondents{middle dot} In addition, data were analysed using SPSS version 27 and Stata version 18, employing descriptive and inferential statistics. Results In this study, while 70{middle dot}64 percent of females attended at least 4 ANC visits, only 38{middle dot}53 percent met WHO ANC adequacy requirements. Facility delivery was 96{middle dot}33 percent, yet only 38{middle dot}46 percent received completed delivery plans. Conflict-related challenges affected access, with 44{middle dot}95 percent reporting insecurity-associated movement difficulties, while 44{middle dot}95 percent reported increased transportation expenses due to the conflict. Near-miss complications were reported among 27.52 percent of participants. Delivery record reviews indicated that obstetric kits were utilised in 81{middle dot}76 percent of deliveries, partographs were accessible in 86{middle dot}49 percent of records but correctly filled in just 60{middle dot}81 percent , while oxytocin administration was 95{middle dot}95 percent. Integrated Health Centres showed poorer adherence with intrapartum interventions compared with District and Regional Hospitals (p <0{middle dot}05). Conclusion In the NWR, maternal mortality was associated with accessibility, interconnected demand-side, conflict-related, and health-system determinants. While utilization of some maternal interventions was high, major implementation gaps, such as weak referral systems, insufficient BEmONC readiness, poor partograph compliance, and conflict disruptions, continually compromise neonatal and maternal outcomes. Strengthening lower-level facilities, enhancing emergency referral systems, and improving implementation of evidence-based obstetric interventions are crucial for minimising maternal mortality in the NWR.

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Influencers, not just adverts: social media influencer exposure and tobacco use among urban youth in Kampala and Nairobi - a comparative mixed methods study

Jawahar Kanth, J. S.; Anish, T. M. R.; Odhiambo, B.; Lwembawo, K. D.; Micheal, S.; Arinaitwe, J.; Nakiyingi, L.

2026-06-10 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.06.26355037 medRxiv
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Tobacco control treaties were written for billboards and television, not for the people now selling lifestyles to young Africans. As mobile internet saturates East African cities, social media influencers have become an unmeasured channel, especially when it comes to tobacco promotion. We assessed the prevalence of tobacco use, its association with influencer exposure, and how urban youth interpret that exposure in two capitals with different tobacco laws. We conducted a comparative mixed-methods study among youth aged 18-29 years in Kampala, Uganda, and Nairobi, Kenya (January-August 2025), combining (i) a cross-sectional survey using systematic sampling at youth-dense venues (n=772), (ii) four online focus group discussions (FGDs; n=40), and (iii) content analysis of 30 tobacco-related posts from high-reach influencers (greater than 50,000 followers). We used chi-square tests and multivariable logistic regression, thematic analysis (Braun and Clarke), and descriptive engagement metrics. Ever tobacco use among urban youth in East Africa was 29.3% (226/772), similar in Kampala (30.7%) and Nairobi (28.0%; p=0.409). After adjustment, exposure to influencers promoting tobacco independently predicted ever use (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.90, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.29-2.82; p=0.001), alongside male sex (aOR 2.35) and age 26-29 years (aOR 1.99). Tertiary education (aOR 0.45) and never seeing tobacco content (aOR 0.26) were protective. Posts framed tobacco as aspirational lifestyle; 77% of sampled comments were positive and 47.5% expressed interest in trying the product. Influencer exposure behaved as a modifiable risk factor of a magnitude comparable to established demographic drivers. Tobacco control in the region must move from print-era advertising bans to platform governance, mandatory disclosure of paid promotion, and youth-led counter-marketing.

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Epidemiology of Cervical Precancerous Lesions: Prevalence and Predictors from Pap Smear Screening in Hawassa City Hospitals, Sidama Region, Ethiopia. Institutional-Based Cross-sectional Study

Fisshatsion, A. B.; Zewude, Y. A.; Nisro, A. M.; Abebe, R. F.

2026-06-10 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.09.26355254 medRxiv
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Background: Cervical cancer is the fourth most common cancer in women worldwide and remains a major public health challenge. In Ethiopia, it is the second leading cause of cancer deaths, with around 8,000 new cases and 6,000 deaths each year. Region?specific data on the prevalence and predictors of precancerous lesions remain scarce, yet such information is vital for guiding targeted reproductive health strategies. This study therefore examined the prevalence and predictors of cervical precancerous lesions among women aged 21-60 years undergoing Pap smear screening in public hospitals in Hawassa City, Sidama Region. Methods: An institution-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 241 women attending Pap smear screening at public hospitals in Hawassa City from March to August 2025. Sociodemographic and clinical data were collected via interviews and medical records. Lesions were classified based on the standardized international framework for reporting cervical cytology results from Pap smears per the Bethesda system. Multivariable logistic regression identified predictors p<0.05). Result: Of 241 women screened (mean age 35.3 years), cervical epithelial abnormalities were detected in 52 (prevalence 21.6%). Atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance was the most common abnormality (16.6%). Multivariable analysis showed HIV infection was significantly associated with precancerous lesions (AOR = 3.7, 95% CI: 1.69-8.12, p<0.05), while hormonal contraceptive use was protective (AOR = 0.27, 95% CI: 0.11-0.67, p<0.05). Conclusion: These results underscore the urgent need to strengthen cervical cancer prevention through targeted screening and early intervention. Integrating routine HIV testing with Pap smear programs would be especially valuable. Health authorities should expand accessible screening for women aged 21-60, with particular attention to those living with HIV, to help reduce the burden of precancerous lesions.

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Cross-Sectional Validation of an 8-Electrode Multi-Frequency Bioelectrical Impedance Analysis (BIA) Device Against Dual-Energy X-ray Absorptiometry (DEXA) for Body Composition Assessment in Indian Adults

Bheda, A.; Sharma, M.; Jokare, N.; Kapoor, S.; Chouksey, J.

2026-06-09 nutrition 10.64898/2026.05.24.26353564 medRxiv
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Background: Obesity is becoming a global health crisis, and it leads to various metabolic disorders. Body mass index fails to differentiate fat mass from lean mass and systematically misclassifies adiposity risk - a limitation particularly pronounced in South Asian adults, who exhibit characteristically elevated visceral adiposity and reduced appendicular lean mass at a normal BMI. The 2025 Lancet Commission explicitly recommends direct adiposity measurement beyond BMI for obesity diagnosis. Weight loss interventions - whether dietary, behavioural, or pharmacological - are consistently associated with concurrent reductions in both fat mass and lean mass, making body composition monitoring essential beyond scale weight alone. Although DEXA is globally accepted as a gold standard for body composition analysis, the accessibility of DEXA is limited, particularly in resource-constrained low and middle-income countries such as India. BIA devices are a convenient low-cost option to DEXA and can be used for body composition analysis more frequently than a DEXA scan to provide longitudinal data. The aim of this study is to validate 8 electrode BIA devices as a viable alternative to DEXA scan for the South Asian population. Methods: A prospective cross-sectional validation study was conducted following ethics committee approval, with a priori sample size estimation ( = 0.05, power = 80%). Fifty-eight healthy adults (n=58) underwent three BIA measurements and one DEXA scan each. To ensure statistical independence, the three BIA readings per participant were averaged, yielding 58 final measurements for validation. Body fat percentage, lean mass and fat mass were evaluated using Python with statistical analyses like Bland Altman analysis, Pearson correlation, ICC and regression analysis. Results: In this BIA vs DEXA study, the Pearson correlation was strong across all three outcomes (fat%: r = 0.97; fat mass: r = 0.98; lean mass: r = 0.96), with ICC (2,1) values of 0.94, 0.97, and 0.91 confirming excellent absolute agreement. Mean absolute error was 3.40% for fat percentage, 1.96 kg for fat mass, and 3.37 kg for lean mass. BIA systematically underestimated body fat percentage (bias -1.96%, 95% CI: -2.91% to -1.01%; LoA: -9.04% to +5.12%) and fat mass (bias -0.72 kg, 95% CI: -1.38 to -0.07 kg; LoA: -5.59 to +4.14 kg), while overestimating lean mass by +3.08 kg (95% CI: +2.34 to +3.82 kg; LoA: -2.46 to +8.62 kg). Conclusions: The 8-electrode BIA device shows clinically acceptable agreement with DEXA for body composition assessment in healthy Indian adults. It offers a radiation-free, cost-effective, accessible, and portable alternative to DEXA, making it suitable for longitudinal monitoring and trend detection. The device is particularly valuable for obesity screening and for tracking body composition changes during weight loss interventions at the population level, addressing the critical need for accessible body composition assessment in resource-limited settings.

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Genetic Susceptibility to Incisional Hernia: Evaluation of Hernia Polygenic Risk Scores

Pregnall, A. M.; Hornick, M. M.; Broach, R. B.; Judy, R.; DePaolo, J.; Yuan, S.; Levin, M.; Fischer, J. P.; Damrauer, S. M.; Wachtel, H.

2026-06-11 genetic and genomic medicine 10.64898/2026.06.10.26355374 medRxiv
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Objectives: Incisional hernia (IH) affects 13-30% of people after abdominal surgery, resulting in substantial morbidity and costs. While clinical risk factors have been studied extensively, genomic risk for IH is incompletely understood. We aimed to evaluate the impact of polygenic risk scores (PRS) on IH risk prediction. Methods] We created and evaluated three PRS for abdominal hernia, ventral hernia and latent hernia susceptibility for prediction of IH in an institutional biobank. The primary outcome was defined as the diagnosis or repair of an IH based on ICD-9/10-CM/PCS and CPT codes. Clinical covariates included age, sex, body mass index (BMI), smoking status, index procedure type, and perioperative surgical site infection. A phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) was performed to assess clinical associations with increased PRS. We then tested the ability of the PRS to improve prediction for IH by modeling clinical covariates with and without PRS in patients who underwent abdominal surgery. Model performance was assessed using 10 iterations of 5-fold cross-validation to estimate Brier scores and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), which were compared using cross-model Bayesian analysis of variance. Results: In 55,809 subjects, assessed PRS was significantly associated with incisional, umbilical, and ventral hernia on PheWAS, with 1.19 greater odds of developing IH per 1-SD increase in PRS (95% CI: 1.13-1.25, P \< 0.001). Of 9,909 subjects who underwent qualifying abdominal surgery, 706 developed IH. In this cohort, the latent hernia susceptibility PRS was associated with a 16% increased hazard of developing IH per 1-SD increase (HR 1.16; 95% CI: 1.07-1.26; P \< 0.001). Compared to a predictive model using clinical covariates (Brier score = 0.047, 95% CI: 0.046-0.048; AUROC = 0.660, 95% CI: 0.653-0.666), addition of the PRS showed similar Brier score and AUROC estimates (Brier score = 0.047, 95% CI: 0.046-0.048; AUROC: 0.667, 95% CI: 0.661-0.673) at five years. Cross-model Bayesian analysis demonstrated \>99% probability of practical equivalence when trying to detect a difference of [&ge;] 0.02. Conclusion: All three PRS for hernia were independently associated with IH, suggesting that genomic factors contribute significantly to IH development. However, none of the three PRS meaningfully improved clinical IH risk prediction in patients who underwent abdominal surgery. This suggests that clinical comorbidities and surgical techniques may be equally as important as genomic architecture.

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Predictors of Road Safety behaviors among Boda-Boda Operators and their passengers in Kampala: A Mixed-Methods Study

Ainembabazi, R.; Kimuli, D.; Murami, T.; Wafula, S. T.; mgeyi, E.; Kwesiga, J. B.; Kibingo, P.; Mugumya, I.; Atulomah, N. O.; Nsubuga, D.

2026-06-07 public and global health 10.64898/2026.05.29.26354085 medRxiv
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Background Despite existing road safety regulations, commercial motorcycle riders commonly referred to as "Boda Bodas" in Uganda continue to experience high rates of injuries due to road traffic accidents resulting from unsafe riding behaviours, contributing significantly to morbidity and mortality among both riders and passengers. Safe riding behaviours are less well documented, as well as factors associated with the observance of those behaviours. This study aimed to determine factors associated with safe riding behaviors for both boda-boda riders and their passengers in Kampala Central Division. Methods A cross-sectional survey study design was conducted using a convergent parallel mixed-methods design guided by the PRECEDE model. Quantitative data were collected from 424 riders through structured questionnaires administered by trained research assistants. Binary Logistic regression was used to determine the independent predictors of safe road riding behaviors, and Adjusted Odds ratios (AORs) have been reported. Data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics, with a p-value <0.05 considered statistically significant. Qualitative data were collected simultaneously with quantitative data through in-depth semi-structured interviews with 10 passengers to capture perceptions of rider behaviors and safety practices. Thematic analysis was applied, and results were triangulated to highlight convergences and divergences between quantitative and qualitative findings, providing a comprehensive understanding of safety determinants for both riders and passengers. Results Of the 424 riders (mean rider age was 29.56 {+/-} 5.71), overall, 276 (65.1%) of riders exhibited unsafe riding behaviors. In the bivariate analysis with Logistic regression, predisposing factors (education, marital status, religion, and willingness to obey traffic regulations), and reinforcing factors (family encouragement) were significantly associated with safe riding behaviors. However, in the adjusted model, secondary (AOR=0.50; 95% CI:0.30-0.85) and post-secondary education (AOR=0.57; 95% CI:0.33-0.98), being married (AOR=0.56; 95% CI:0.34-0.91), Christian religion (AOR=2.98; 95% CI:1.63-5.47), willingness to obey traffic regulations (AOR=0.41; 95% CI:0.24-0.70), union advocacy (AOR=1.76; 95% CI:1.03-3.01), and well-maintained roads (AOR=1.65; 95% CI:1.07-2.55) were significant predictors of safe riding behaviors. Qualitative interviews further highlighted barriers to safety, including a lack of helmets, over-speeding, disregard for traffic regulations, and poor road infrastructure. Conclusions Rider and passenger safety is still low, interdependent, and influenced by multiple factors. Integrated interventions focusing on education, stronger families, religious affiliations, union safety advocacy, and stricter enforcement of traffic regulations are vital for enhancing safety for both riders and passengers.

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Alcohol Consumption Patterns and Sociodemographic Correlates Among US Adults with Cardiovascular Disease: A Cross-Sectional Analysis of All of Us and NHANES

yang, q.; yu, j.; zhao, h.; zou, m.; sun, y.

2026-06-09 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.06.26355052 medRxiv
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This cross-sectional study aimed to examine the prevalence of alcohol use and its sociodemographic correlates among adults with cardiovascular disease (CVD). We analyzed data from two large US cohorts: the All of Us Research Program (2017-2023) and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES, 1999-2016). Both CVD diagnosis and past-year alcohol consumption were self-reported. Risky drinking was defined as exceeding moderate drinking or binge drinking (All of Us), or moderate/heavy drinking (NHANES). Multivariable logistic regression was used to exam associations with sociodemographic and lifestyle factors. Among 32,788 current drinkers with CVD in the All of Us cohort, 15% exceeded moderate drinking thresholds and 26% reported binge drinking. Older age, female sex, and higher socioeconomic status were inversely associated with risky drinking, while smoking was positively associated. In NHANES, moderate drinking rose from 47.3% to 57.2% and heavy drinking from 6.7% to 7.2%. Moderate/heavy drinking was positively associated with age <65 but inversely with age [&ge;]65. Higher education and income were linked to moderate drinking, while current smoking was strongly associated with heavy drinking. These results highlight the need to integrate holistic screening for alcohol use, tobacco use, and social context into routine cardiovascular care.

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High coverage, persistent gaps: quality of Antenatal Care and its determinants in Zambia based on the 2024 Demographic and Health Survey.

Tukamuhebwa, P. M.; Nuwabaine, L.

2026-06-12 public and global health 10.64898/2026.06.11.26355447 medRxiv
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Abstract Background Evaluating antenatal care (ANC) quality is critical to reducing maternal and neonatal mortality. In Zambia, despite high basic ANC attendance, comprehensive national evidence on the clinical content and quality of services remains limited. This study assessed the coverage of WHO-recommended ANC interventions and identified factors associated with care quality using the latest national data. Methods A cross-sectional analysis was conducted using data from the 2024 Zambia Demographic and Health Survey. The final analytic sample comprised 4,829 women aged 15-49 with a live birth in the preceding 5 years. A composite index of 15 selected, equally weighted WHO-recommended components evaluated clinical assessment, counseling/screening, preventive interventions, and utilization. Survey-weighted Poisson regression estimated adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRRs) for the count of ANC components received. Results The mean ANC quality score was 12.5 out of 15 (95% CI: 12.4-12.6), and 78.5% (95% CI: 77.0-80.0) of women achieved adequate ANC ([&ge;] 12/15 components). While individual clinical and counseling coverage generally exceeded 90%, only 47.2% (95% CI: 45.3-49.0) of women initiated care during the first trimester, and just 4.8% (95% CI: 4.1-5.6) achieved [&ge;] 8 ANC contacts. Maternal education was the strongest and most stable predictor of quality across all models. Compared to no education, higher education was associated with an 8.0% higher expected quality score (aIRR = 1.080, 95% CI: 1.051-1.110). Lower ANC quality was significantly associated with unwanted pregnancies (aIRR = 0.970, 95% CI: 0.956-0.993) and with residence in Western (aIRR = 0.923, 95% CI: 0.897-0.951) and North Western (aIRR = 0.966, 95% CI: 0.937-0.996) provinces. Absence of distance barriers and residence in Eastern, Luapula, and Copperbelt provinces were associated with higher quality scores. Conclusion While average ANC component coverage in Zambia is high, critical gaps persist in early initiation and total contact frequency. Care adequacy is strongly influenced by maternal education, relationship status, pregnancy intention, and regional inequities. These findings underscore the need for interventions targeted at uneducated women, preventing unintended pregnancies, and underserved regions such as Western and North Western Provinces. Keywords: Antenatal care quality, ANC content, Zambia, maternal education.

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Modeling the Impact of Pediatric RSV Immunization in Massachusetts, 2024--2025

Jones, L.; Ergas, R.; Tibbs, A.; Russo, E. T.; Norville, J.; Bingay, B.; Brown, C. M.; Reich, N. G.; Pasco, R.

2026-06-10 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.05.26354236 medRxiv
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Background Pediatric immunizations for Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV), including monoclonal antibodies for infants and vaccines for pregnant people, have become broadly available and can prevent severe RSV outcomes in infants. However, quantifying the impact of RSV immunization in prevention of severe pediatric illness at the population-level is limited by lack of RSV case surveillance data. The Massachusetts Department of Public Health (DPH) conducted a modeling analysis using routine public health surveillance data to estimate the state-level impact of new RSV immunization products on Emergency Department (ED) visits and hospitalizations in Massachusetts for highest risk pediatric groups. Methods A scenario projection tool, called R.Scenario.Vax, was utilized to simulate RSV-associated ED hospital encounters by age group in the context of newly available immunizations. ED visit and hospitalization data from the National Syndromic Surveillance Program (NSSP) during the time period 10/08/2017--10/19/2024 were analyzed, scaled to account for changes in RSV testing practices over time and missing encounter volume in historic data, and utilized to inform model fit of a "typical" RSV season. RSV immunization data from the Massachusetts Immunization Information System (MIIS) for the 2023--2024 and 2024--2025 RSV seasons informed high and moderate pediatric RSV immunization coverage scenarios and their impact was compared to a counterfactual reference scenario of no new immunizations. Median projections were quantitatively and qualitatively compared to observed 2024--2025 season data. Percent reduction in hospital encounters and encounters averted per 10,000 population were calculated for each scenario as compared to the reference. Results Projections for the youngest at-risk age groups showed significantly lower RSV-associated ED visits and hospitalizations during the 2024--2025 season for both high and moderate immunization coverage scenarios. Median projections for infants under 6 months old in the highest coverage scenario, wherein nearly all infants were immunized, showed 72.6% lower ED visits and 73.4% lower hospitalizations when compared to the reference scenario, equating to 262 ED visits and 85 hospitalizations averted per 10,000 population. Conclusions Our results support the use of modeling methods for public health insights and suggest that RSV immunizations for infant populations result in significantly lower RSV-related ED encounters in Massachusetts.

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Burden of Chronic Kidney Disease in China, 1990-2021: Findings from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study

Wang, M.; Zhao, T.; Wang, H.; Hou, S.; Fu, Y.

2026-06-09 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.06.06.26355056 medRxiv
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Introduction: To investigate the epidemiological characteristics of chronic kidney diseases (CKD) in China in 2021 and its trends between 1990 and 2021, in the context of significant population growth and lifestyle changes over the past 30 years that have likely influenced the CKD spectrum. Methods: Data on CKD prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALY), and risk factors were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The estimated decadal percentage changes were calculated to evaluate changes in trends in prevalence, mortality and disease burden. Results: In 2021, an estimated 118.4 (95% UI 109.4 to 127.5) million people in China were affected by CKD, contributing to 204 230 (95% UI 164 736 to 246 372) deaths and 6.13 (95% UI 5.18 to 7.21) million DALY. Although CKD due to diabetes mellitus and hypertension accounted for less than a quarter of all cases, they were responsible for over 90% of CKD-related deaths. Over the past three decades, CKD mortality and DALY rates have steadily increased, although the prevalence has stabilized in the last decade. Diabetes mellitus type 2 and hypertension have emerged as key drivers of CKD burden in China. Conclusions: The CKD burden in China shows a dual pattern of rising incidence and high mortality from diabetes and hypertension-related chronic kidney disease, alongside persistently high years lived with disability from glomerulonephritis and other causes.